Bans around the world on single use plastic items such as carrier bags will dent growth in oil demand over the next two decades, according to BP. The UK-headquartered oil and gas firm said it still expects the global hunger for crude to grow for years and not peak until the late 2030s.
The company’s energy outlook report, forecasts demand peaking at about 110m barrels per day between 2035 and 2040, up from around 97mb/d today. Much of the growth comes from rising prosperity in the developing world.
BP also looked at the impact of a more stringent and global version of the bans on petrol and diesel cars that governments such as those in France and the UK have pledged by 2040 and that China is considering. Even with such a strong measure, the modelled effect would be limited on oil demand and emissions. The former would drop by 10mb/d, which is significant but not disastrous for oil firms if BP’s prediction of 110mb/d of demand comes to pass. Emissions would be Lower than without a ban, but still grow 7% by 2040 because of more vehicles on the road, a disastrous increase for meeting climate change goals.
Global oil consumption is likely to peak in the late 2030s according to a forecast published by BP. The world currently consumes around 100 million barrels per day and BP estimates that number will go by another 10% before levelling off.
It expects renewable energy to be the fastest growing fuel source, increasing five-fold by 2040. BP forecasts that more than 40% of the overall increase in energy demand will be met by renewable forms of power. The oil company also said that greater efficiency in transportation would curb oil demand.
BP also estimated that oil output of 85 million barrels per day would satisfy the Paris Agreement on climate change. The agreement pledges to keep global temperatures well below 2C above pre-industrial times and “endeavour to limit” them even more, to 1.5C. expects carbon emissions to rise 10% by 2040 – meaning it will fail to meet the Paris agreement on this measure.